If BJP wins UP by poll & Karnataka then 1971 will be repeated. But if they lose both elections then 1977 will be repeated

2019 general elections are visible on horizon and influencing political equations now ever more than. before. Exactly one year ago UP election results scared the opposition parties to a great extent. It appeared as BJP will definitely win 2019 and Modi will get second term as PM. This fear prompted Nitish Kumar to divorce Lalu Yadav and marry BJP. Later the same year Gujarat elections took place and a change in fortunes appeared. Had it not been urban voters of Gujarat, BJP’s defeat was definite. Rural voters and farmers are upset with BJP and that fact for the first time came to surface in Modi/Shah’s home turf Gujarat itself.
Following Gujarat, Rajasthan by poll for 2 LS and 1 assembly seats took place just a few weeks ago and BJP tasted its worst defeat in Rajasthan after 2014’s Modi wave. All three BJP seats were snatched by Congress. Ajmer seat was in BJP’s pocket for 3 decades. That established another fact that both urban and rural voters are upset with BJP in Rajasthan.
Just a month before Rajasthan by polls, UP local body polls happened where BJP suffered heavy losses in rural belt. On the other hand BJP fared well in Maharashtra local Panchayat elections. Two weeks ago Congress maintained hold over 2 seats in MP by poll albeit with reduced margin. Now BJP won Tripura assembly elections though 60 assembly seats will give BJP only 2 LS seats. But for BJP it’s importantf as a foothold in NE.
So it’s difficult to ascertain the mood of Indian voters across the country from these mixed results. One analysis points to BJP’s defeat and another signals reduction in BJP’s number of seats resulting in thinner majority or even a hung parliament. BJP will return to power in 2019 with even more seats than 2014 is not one expert is saying which is significant. In fact voices heard in the air are more like ‘If BJP loses than corrupt Congress will form Govt’. This lame fear mongering suggests a change is haunting even staunch BJP supporters. But will this happen?
Next month Karnataka assembly elections will unfold a lot more clearer picture. Northern Karnataka will answer this to a great extent. Congress faces anti incumbency factor in Karnataka.Unhappy voters may tilt towards BJP. Besides, BJP has stoked communal sentiments in Northern Karnataka as was expected. Anand Kumar Hegde is on the job diligently. Despite this if BJP doesn’t succeed in Karnataka then it will establish a very significant fact that ‘change’ has started taking place and Tripura victory won’t save BJP. In between UP by poll of Gorakhpur and Fulpur too will happen. Yogi Adityanath’s home turf Gorakhpur has been in his pocket for more than 30 years. Way back in 1967 Yogi Adityanath’s Guru Mahant Digvijaynath and in 1971 Guru Avaidhyanath won from Gorakhpur. Yogi Adityanath has retained this seat since 1998 till he became CM of UP. Yogi Adityanath won Gorakhpur in 2014 with margin of 1,42,000 votes. Gorakhpur LS constituency ha 6 assembly segments and BJP won all of them.
Fulpur used to be Jawaharlal Nehru’s constituency. BJP won this for the first time in 2014 with a massive margin. Keshav Prasad Maurya of BJP defeated his SP opponent Dharamraj Patel with 3,08,000 votes. Maurya became Dy CM of UP so Fulpur faces by poll.
So both these seats belong to CM & Dy CM of UP and obviously it is a battle of prestige for BJP. On the other side BSP has decided to support SP on both seats. BSP won’t field their candidates in support of SP. Surprisingly BSP’s Kapil Muni Karwariya had won Fulpur in 2009. BSP & SP joining hands is worrying for BJP. It’s worth remembering history for this worry. After Babri demolition in 1992, Mulayam and Mayawati had joined hands for UP elections and defeated BJP. Although their alliance fell apart after their acrimonious split that saw both leaders touching their lowest political values. Mayawati had vowed to never join hands again with SP at the time. Akhilesh Yadav attempted to bridge this gap with Mayawati after he became CM but Mayawati remained cold. Now the political reality has changed and once again both bitter opponents have patched up at least for this by poll.
This brings us to an interesting but paradoxical situation. If BJP is victorious in both UP by poll and Karnataka then 2019 will see a repeat of 1971. If BJP loses Bothe these elections then 2019 may see a repeat of 1977. In 1971 opposition parties had united but Indira Gandhi remained undefeated. 6 years later Indira Gandhi was defeated by the same opposition parties to an extent that both Indira and Sanjay Gandhi lost their own seats.

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